Gold has had an incredible run … but what’s next?
A couple of weeks ago I was asked my opinion in TV interviews about the queues of investors lining up and down the street outside gold bullion stores. I explained that, for me, it was a sign that gold was at its peak and investors should be cautious. It was a classic case of an investment bubble about to burst.
Since then, precious metals investors have been rattled. Gold is down 22 per cent from its peak earlier this year, while silver has tumbled 50 per cent from its high. Bond yields have spiked on inflation fears, and the market is treating it as a breakdown.
New gold investors have been shocked and many have cut their losses and run.
But Mark Moreland from MPC Markets thinks that rather than running, investors should be looking to either hang in there or average down.
A new golden opportunity?
Most analysts are reaching for the 1970s stagflation playbook, but Mark thinks that’s the wrong map.
He says a far more precise analogue is the 1990 Kuwait invasion, when an oil-driven inflation shock pushed yields higher and precious metals lower. After a swift military resolution collapsed oil prices, growth fears took over, and yields fell by roughly 80 basis points by the ceasefire, with metals climbing back alongside rates.
According to Mark, that is the pattern playing out right now. And it creates a three-phase entry opportunity that disciplined investors should not be sleeping on.
The structural case remains completely intact. De-dollarisation is accelerating. The US debt spiral is worsening. The recession outlook sits at 50/50 with inflation – that refuses to fully retreat.
These forces do not disappear when a conflict de-escalates. If anything, they become the dominant narrative in Phase Three – and that is precisely when gold and silver’s secular uptrend resumes with force.
Mark says this sell-off is technical. It is positioning-driven. It is not a fundamental breakdown.
Watch and see
If he’s right, this isn’t the end of the gold story – it’s just the messy middle. Big drops don’t always mean the trend is over. Sometimes they just clear out the hype.
The truth is, no one really knows how this plays out from here.
That doesn’t mean rushing in. It means staying patient, keeping a cool head, and watching closely.
Because if this is a reset – not a breakdown – gold’s next move could catch a lot of people off guard.
