I’ve said over the last couple of weeks that I reckon the December quarter CPI figure (released on 29 January) will be lower than most people think and that we are at the top of the interest rate cycle. Just as the September CPI surprised everyone by being higher than expected, the December quarter will… Read more »
For years I’ve been following Louis Christopher from SQM Research, who I reckon is one of our very best property analysts. Long-time readers will know I often quote him here and share his research. But this time every year he issues what I think is the best property forecast for the year. It’s called Christopher’s… Read more »
Rent increases are one of the biggest factors fuelling our inflation rate, keeping it high and forcing the RBA to keep interest rates high. According to SQM Research’s Christopher’s Housing Boom and Bust Report, that pressure on inflation from rising rents is not going away next year. SQM’s overall capital city forecast is for rents… Read more »
The Reserve Bank has been constantly saying that as it monitors the economy for any further need for interest rate increases, apart from inflation its focus is on jobs, household spending and the property market. This week we received key data on all these areas. First up jobs. Unemployment up but job creation still strong… Read more »
Comments in the latest RBA Board minutes shows they don’t just want inflation to slow, they want it down at a faster rate. Mark this Wednesday in your calendar. That’s the day the September quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released at 11.30am. That single figure will determine whether the Reserve Bank lifts interest… Read more »
Anyone who has recently built a house or completed a renovation will know first-hand the exorbitant rise in construction costs due to post-pandemic supply chain issues and labour shortages. This building cost spiral has also sent builders who had fixed price contracts in place before the upheavals, broke. The cost increases have been a major… Read more »
RBA Board meeting week and it was steady as she goes. A change in RBA Governor from Philip Lowe to Michele Bullock made no difference at all… and I suspect that was the point. There was all sorts of talk in the lead up to the meeting about whether Michele would stamp her own unique… Read more »
Inflation is stabilising, consumers are reining in their spending and the strong job market is showing signs of weakening. Economically we are kicking a few goals when it comes to inflation. This week’s monthly Consumer Price Index for August was in line with economist forecasts and steady at 5.6 per cent – still well above… Read more »
Last week I wrote about how landlords are being driven out of the rental market, which is exacerbating the crisis. I was interested in an analysis by the research director at Ray White, Nerida Conisbee on the rental crisis and what is causing it. Proportion of households under rental stress The Economist magazine recently undertook an… Read more »
You know how ropeable I am about the Reserve Bank’s comments two years ago reassuring Australians to go out and borrow with the comfort of knowing interest rates would not rise until 2024. It was negligent for them to make those comments. Financial markets were warning of a then-imminent breakout in inflation and the need to… Read more »
