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There is always a blame game when it comes to interest rates, and now to RBA is pointing the finger … I’ve been saying for a while that Australians don’t deserve another interest rate hike to fight inflation because we are doing the right thing by reigning in inflation. Cost increases are mostly coming from… Read more »
Everyone is watching interest rates, but could we be on the brink of an employment crisis? How will THIS impact inflation? The ‘two sided risk’ explained. History tells us that the last economic indicator to shift in a downturn is employment. My fear is that we are at that tipping point now. And history tells… Read more »
Leading into COVID we were on a world record-breaking run of consecutive quarters of positive economic growth. Since the lockdowns finished the Australian economy has been tough going. Economic growth figures out this week were ugly – up just 1 per cent for the quarter and just 1.1 per cent for the year. Remember, this… Read more »
I’ve said over the last couple of weeks that I reckon the December quarter CPI figure (released on 29 January) will be lower than most people think and that we are at the top of the interest rate cycle. Just as the September CPI surprised everyone by being higher than expected, the December quarter will… Read more »
The Reserve Bank has been constantly saying that as it monitors the economy for any further need for interest rate increases, apart from inflation its focus is on jobs, household spending and the property market. This week we received key data on all these areas. First up jobs. Unemployment up but job creation still strong… Read more »
RBA Board meeting week and it was steady as she goes. A change in RBA Governor from Philip Lowe to Michele Bullock made no difference at all… and I suspect that was the point. There was all sorts of talk in the lead up to the meeting about whether Michele would stamp her own unique… Read more »
Inflation is stabilising, consumers are reining in their spending and the strong job market is showing signs of weakening. Economically we are kicking a few goals when it comes to inflation. This week’s monthly Consumer Price Index for August was in line with economist forecasts and steady at 5.6 per cent – still well above… Read more »
This week’s quarterly inflation figures are the lowest since September 2021. After last week’s very low unemployment figure, we knew this week’s quarterly inflation figure would play a critical role in the next RBA decision… it had to offset the tight labour market. And it did. The June quarter CPI was 0.8 per cent and… Read more »
Wages are rising but not at the same pace as inflation, which means the purchasing power of your money is going backwards. In fact, “real wages” growth has never been worse. You’re getting paid more cash, but your cash is buying less. While wage rises are stronger than normal, it is completely understandable if you’re… Read more »
The RBA knows that any decision whether to raise or pause interest rates is tricky because you don’t want rate hikes to tip the economy over the edge into recession. This week they took a gamble by lifting rates another 0.25 per cent to 3.85 per cent. The Board has now delivered an incredible 375bp… Read more »
