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The red flags of an economic downturn are flying high. As the conflict in the Middle East continues, Australian eyes are firmly on the economic fallout. We’re already feeling it through eye-watering fuel prices, which will flow through into higher costs across the economy. But now there are two major warning signs that we could… Read more »
Leading into COVID we were on a world record-breaking run of consecutive quarters of positive economic growth. Since the lockdowns finished the Australian economy has been tough going. Economic growth figures out this week were ugly – up just 1 per cent for the quarter and just 1.1 per cent for the year. Remember, this… Read more »
Reserve Bank Board meeting week and, as expected, official interest rates were kept on hold. But there was an important change in the statement explaining the announcement. The words are now more important than the actual decision. From saying “a further increase in interest rates cannot be ruled out” in September, this week’s statement said… Read more »
Interest rates are a blunt instrument, but governments have more options to help fight inflation. They’re just not using them. The Reserve Bank boss, Michele Bullock, recently said interest rates were a “blunt instrument” when it came to fighting inflation. In other words, the impact of interest rate rises can be a bit of a… Read more »
A tumultuous week for finance nerds like me who for years have excitedly marked the first Tuesday of the month in our calendars as “Reserve Bank Board Meeting Day”. This week was the last RBA board meeting on the first Tuesday of the month… the next one will be Tuesday March 19 as the RBA… Read more »
For weeks I’ve been pointing toward Wednesday’s December quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement as being crucial to setting the tone for interest rates this year. Well, the result was really encouraging and basically signalled the top of this interest rate cycle. The headline CPI rose 0.6 per cent for the December quarter and 4.1… Read more »
The US central bank has made a major pivot away from talking tough about further interest rises and is now openly hinting at interest cuts in 2024. On Thursday morning our time the Federal Reserve Bank kept US interest rates on hold as expected, but then said they were expecting to cut rates 0.75 per… Read more »
This week gave us some critical economic signposts. The RBA decided to keep interest rates on hold and the latest economic growth figures were pretty anaemic – without the impact of migration the economy would be in recession. As expected, at their meeting on Tuesday, the RBA Board decided to keep interest rates on hold… Read more »
I’ve said over the last couple of weeks that I reckon the December quarter CPI figure (released on 29 January) will be lower than most people think and that we are at the top of the interest rate cycle. Just as the September CPI surprised everyone by being higher than expected, the December quarter will… Read more »
The Reserve Bank has been constantly saying that as it monitors the economy for any further need for interest rate increases, apart from inflation its focus is on jobs, household spending and the property market. This week we received key data on all these areas. First up jobs. Unemployment up but job creation still strong… Read more »
